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Sunday, October 14, 2012

2012 - A Romney Biden Presidency? Or...A President Biden?

How Biden could become Romney's VP
Philip Klein, Senior Editorial Writer, The Washington Examiner
Philip Klein
← by Philip Klein, Senior Editorial Writer, The Washington Examiner, Fr.12Oct12
     It might be hard to believe after his assault on Mitt Romney in last night's debate, but there's a scenario under which Joe Biden could serve as Mitt Romney's vice president.
     As noted in an earlier post, there are plausible scenarios under which next month's election could result in a 269-269 electoral vote tie, which would send the presidential election over to the House of Representatives.  Such an outcome would favor Romney over President Obama, according to an analysis by the Washington Examiner.
     But in such a case, it would fall on the Senate to choose the vice president, with each Senator getting a vote.  Given that it's quite possible (arguably likely) that Democrats will retain control of the Senate, it means that they could vote for Biden to remain on as VP, even if the House elects Romney as president.
     In theory, if the election outcome is a 50-50 Senate, Biden could be the tie-breaking vote for himself.  This would allow him to remain on as VP and for the Democrats to retain effective control of the Senate.  It would also usher in the Romney-Biden administration.
     Here's another, even wilder possibility: If the House ends up deadlocked in choosing a president, then the candidate the Senate chooses as vice president would be sworn in as commander in chief.  In other words, this scenario could produce a President Biden.

Romney has solid edge in 269-269 electoral vote tie scenario
Philip Klein
← by Philip Klein, Senior Editorial Writer, The Washington Examiner, Fr.12Oct12

This scenario, which may not be too far-flung, would cause a tie in the Electoral College between Mitt Romney (red) and Barack Obama (blue).  (image source: http://cdn.washingtonexaminer.biz/cache/r620-f75cdb3563816bb9f26f79562d38b083.jpg)

     As Mitt Romney continues to make gains in swing state polls in the wake of his dominant debate performance last week, it’s becoming increasingly possible that Americans could wake up on Nov. 7 to a 269-269 Electoral College tie.  In such a case, Romney would almost surely win the presidency, according to analysis by the Washington Examiner.
     Under the U.S. Constitution, in the event of an Electoral College tie, the presidential race is turned over to the House of Representatives (assuming no unexpected defections when the electors formally vote in December).  And here’s the twist: Each state would get just one vote, based on what the majority of its own delegation decides.  A candidate would thus need 26 votes to win.
     In 1800, the last time this happened and state delegations split evenly in their House members’ choice of president, those states (Vermont and Maryland) cast blank ballots.  (In that election, because the congressional and presidential inaugurations were held on the same day, the outgoing House chose the president instead of the incoming one.  This would not happen today, because the new Congress is sworn in before the electoral votes are counted.)
     The Washington Examiner took a detailed look at current House delegations and considered the range of realistic outcomes in this year’s Congressional elections, including changes due to reapportionment.  By our estimates, Romney should have at least 26 states safely, with Obama having at least 13 and 11 states up in the air, pending the outcome of the Congressional elections.
     Most of the Romney states are pretty obvious: Alabama, Arkansas, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia and Wyoming.
     The remaining states we gave to Romney (Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) may not be as obvious to readers at first blush, because several of them are likely to vote for Obama.  But a closer look at the breakdown of these states’ House delegations shows why they should be considered solidly Romney.  For instance, in Pennsylvania, Republicans hold 12 of the state’s 19 House seats, but the state lost a seat following the results of the 2010 Census.  The district eliminated was a Democratic one.  Democrats are unlikely to make up a six-seat gap in such a close election year.  In fact, the Rothenberg Political Report only sees two of Pennsylvania’s Republican seats as competitive, and gives Republicans the edge in both.
     The 13 solid Obama states are California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Washington and Vermont.
     This analysis likely understates Romney’s advantage.  We’ve been as conservative as is reasonable, not committing states where the outcome is legitimately in doubt.  New Jersey, for example, could have a majority Democratic delegation in January, or it could end up tied.  Democrats have a better-than-even chance of seizing one or both House seats in New Hampshire, and they might gain enough seats in Colorado to control the delegation there.  Republicans may or may not manage to tie the House delegation in Iowa, which shrinks from five to four.  Other states, such as Nevada, Michigan, Montana, North Dakota, Arizona, Rhode Island (where Rep. David Cicilline is in some trouble) and Minnesota are legitimately in question.
     The website 270towin has identified 32 different scenarios that could result in an electoral vote tie.  One example, demonstrated in the map generated from CNN at the top of this post, would be if Romney were to win Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and Nevada — while Obama wins the rest of the swing states.

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3 comments:

  1. I hardly drop remarks, however i did a few searching and wound
    up here "2012 - A Romney Biden Presidency? Or...A President Biden?".
    And I actually do have 2 questions for you if it's allright. Could it be only me or does it appear like a few of these comments look like they are written by brain dead visitors? :-P And, if you are writing at other sites, I'd like to keep up with
    everything new you have to post. Could you make a list of
    every one of all your public sites like your Facebook page, twitter feed, or linkedin profile?
    my webpage - www-Moviesonline.com

    ReplyDelete
  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I mostly communicate via the comments and replies to them. I don't add my opines on facebook, twitter and don't use linkedin. My facebook and twitter posts are almost all just reposts of what's here on my blog. As you can see from hunting around the blog, I mostly repost articles that state my views and maybe out of 1 in 10 I will added my own comments at the top expanding on my feelings about the article, photo, toons, etc. After last Tuesday's [Nov. 6] election fiasco I'm tapering off somewhat on my rants about American Values being attacked by o'der leader. As I hear or read about new moves by him and his consorts then I'll hunt up articles and add my opines accordingly. The "bread and circuses" fools leading our country or who claim as our representatives to be doing what is best for the country are selling us literally down the fiscal river. The fool who has surrounded himself with the same old lobbyists and 'fat cat' power brokers appears to honestly believe (though he can lie convincingly) that we can borrow and spend our way out of debt. No country in the history of the world has survived long following that failed agenda. If he would come right out and say that he is a Marxist/Communist Fascist, I'd better understand; however, his Hitler-esque 'Big Lie' strategy is working with the masses of neo-intellectuals and nouveau riche. Considering that he has openly said that he'd like to legislate without congress (enabling acts) and that the Constitution is outdated says volumes about his not being an American in the broadest sense. His animosity toward Israel and its real geopolitical history ..given the history of the Nazi "Final Solution" and FDR's preventing the Allies to disrupt death camps makes the American Jewish vote for this anti-Semite all the more astounding. Considering o'bamacide's legislative and propaganda record on killing babies for profit and votes should have given rise to an overwhelming defeat both in 2008 and 2012 by Jews and Negroes alike...it did not. When 25% of all black children are murdered before, during and after birth by abortionist$ it makes me wonder why they just don't go out and start digging trenches and lining up for his eventual plans for them to come to pass. Christian voters, ignoring his clear and ever present danger to freedom of speech and religion, are equally fools in helping to bring about their own demise. By any measure o'failure's record which forecasts his future actions astounds even the simplest examination of facts...not hollow rhetoric. How do you explain the majority of Hispanic voters backing a man who supports and advocates illegal immigration into the U.S.? Consider that during the last months of this now past campaign he advertised on Mexican television how, if you can get into America (legally or not) how to get on to welfare and other subsitance programs. Even the most casual observer of the cover up of "Fast and Furious" knows that it was an effort to lay a foundation of anti-gun sentiment and gun ban laws here in the U.S. Luckily, except for the several American officers and many many Mexican nationals killed by those weapons, that fiasco was exposed...still not resolved though. And what fool believed for one minute that an obscure video was the precursor the to slaughter of American officers and Libyan staff...abandoned while being watched as they were abused and murdered. Not all of the visitors are brain dead. I am sometimes as well. But, for all of our sakes, let us hope that we are wrong and that he will come to realize the errors of his ways before our country is gone.

    ReplyDelete

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Mar 11, 2008 - "My friends, we live in the greatest nation in the history of the world.  I hope you'll join with me as we try to change it." -- B. Hussein Obama

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2014: o'der leader 'That's the Good Thing as a President, I Can Do Whatever I Want.'

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Judica me, Deus, et discerne causam meam de gente non sancta, ab homine iniquo et doloso erue me.
Do me justice, O God, and distinguish my cause from the nation that is not holy; rescue me from the deceitful and unjust man.
- Psalm 43 KJV, 42 Douay Rheims  (http://barnhardt.biz)

There are certain universal truths.  There is right and wrong.  Life is, choice Isn't.  The 2nd Amendment is for you and me, not the government.

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