Daily Presidential Tracking Poll Fr.2Oct09 - Rasmussen Reports

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 28% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-eight percent (38%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -10 (see trends). Looking at the numbers on a Month-by-Month basis, the President’s ratings stabilized in September.

Thirty-six percent (36%) of Americans say it was a good idea for the President to help Chicago’s Olympic pitch. Forty-three percent (43%) hold the opposite view.

Government ethics and corruption has inched ahead of the economy as a top voter concern. Eighty-three percent (83%) say the ethics issues are Very Important while 82% say the same about the economy. Health care is next on the list at 73%.

Just 49% believe the economy will be stronger in five years. That’s down from 58% in July and 64% at the beginning of the year.

In an early look at the 2010 Delaware Senate race, Republican Mike Castle leads Democrat Beau Biden. However, if Castle doesn’t run, Biden has the edge.

The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates also available on Twitter and Facebook.

Overall, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance.  Fifty-one (51%) disapprove. Other stats on Obama are updated daily on our Obama By the Numbers page.

Eighty-three percent (83%) say that all legislation should be posted online and available for everyone to read before Congress votes on it. Of those who want the information available, 64% say legislation should be posted in final form at least two weeks before a vote.

When it comes to health care, just 22% believe most Members of Congress will understand what’s in the legislation before they vote on it.

In the Virginia Governor’s race, Republican Bob McDonnell has opened a nine-point lead. Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln is struggling in her bid for re-election and trails all potential challengers. In California, former Governor Jerry Brown (D) leads all challengers in a bid to reclaim his old job. In Arizona, incumbent Governor Jan Brewer (R) trails Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) by seven. Republicans have a very slight edge on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. President Obama's numbers are always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That's because some of the President's most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote.

Scott Rasmussen has recently had three analysis columns published in the Wall Street Journal. The most recent was on health care. Earlier columns were on the President's approval ratings and how Obama won the White House by campaigning like Ronald Reagan. If you'd like Scott Rasmussen to speak at your meeting, retreat, or conference, contact Premiere Speakers Bureau. You can also learn about Scott's favorite place on earth or his time working with hockey legend Gordie Howe.

Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated polling techniques. While some of our competitors diss the approach and prefer their own operator-assisted technology, Pollster.com founder Mark Blumenthal noted that “independent analyses from the National Council on Public Polls, the American Association for Public Opinion Research, the Pew Research Center, the Wall Street Journal and FiveThirtyEight.com have all shown that the horse-race numbers produced by automated telephone surveys did at least as well as those from conventional live-interviewer surveys in predicting election outcomes.”

Additionally, an analysis by Pollster.com partner Charles Franklin “found that despite identically sized three-day samples, the Rasmussen daily tracking poll is less variable than Gallup.” During Election 2008, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll was the least volatile of all those tracking the race. That stability is one reason that Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com said that the Rasmussen tracking poll “would probably be the one I'd want with me on a desert island."

A Fordham University professor rated the national pollsters on their record in Election 2008. We also have provided a summary of our results for your review. In 2008, Obama won 53%-46% and our final poll showed Obama winning 52% to 46%. While we were pleased with the final result, Rasmussen Reports was especially pleased with the stability of our results. On every single day for the last six weeks of the campaign, our daily tracking showed Obama with a stable and solid lead attracting more than 50% of the vote.

In 2004 George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote while John Kerry earned 48.3%. Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project both candidates’ totals within half a percentage point by projecting that Bush would win 50.2% to 48.5%. (see our 2004 results).

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters--is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Premium Members.

Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. Over the past five years, the number of Democrats in the country has increased while the number of Republicans has decreased.

Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 37.2% Democrats, 32.7% Republicans, and 30.1% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly smaller advantage for the Democrats.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning. Other stats on Obama are updated daily on the Rasmussen Reports Obama By the Numbers page. We also invite you to review other recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
©2009 Rasmussen Reports, LLC

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