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©2009 Rasmussen Reports, LLC
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Senate Democrats are celebrating this morning for passing their version of health care reform, but voters still don’t like much of what they see.
At the start of the week, 41% of voters nationwide were in favor of the health care bill, but 55% were opposed. This is the fifth straight week with support for the legislation between 38% and 41%. Rasmussen Report is continuing to track support for the plan on a weekly basis and will have new numbers on Monday morning. Part of the opposition comes from a general skepticism about Congress, rather than specific policy issues.
But there are specific policy issues that also raise challenges as the Democrats try to pass a final version of this legislation in early 2010.
Fifty-four percent (54%) say taxpayer-funded health insurance should be prohibited from covering abortions, up six points from September. The House version of the legislation includes such a prohibition, but the Senate version does not.
Fourteen percent (14%) of U.S. voters say health insurance paid for or subsidized with government funding should be required to cover abortions. Twenty-nine percent (29%) say the legislation should have no requirements one way or the other.
On another hot-button topic, 87% believe that before anyone receives government health care subsidies, they should be required to prove they are legally in the United States. President Obama and congressional Democrats insist the health care plan will not cover illegal immigrants, the legislation does not require proof of citizenship for those seeking taxpayer-funded health care help.
Only eight percent (8%) of voters oppose the requirement for proving that recipients of health care subsidies prove they are in the country legally. Public attitudes on this point have changed little since September.
A commentary by Michael Barone notes that it been more than 150 years since such significant but unpopular legislation was passed through Congress on a partisan basis. The political ramifications in 1854 were so significant that it led to the creation of a new political party, the Republican Party. Ultimately, the Kansas-Nebraska Act also played a key role in the run-up to the Civil War.
The so-called “public option” is not in the Senate bill that passed early this morning, but liberal Democrats in the House, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi, are hoping for at least some modified version of government-backed health insurance to compete with private insurers. However, it is not likely to be included due to the fierce opposition of some Senate Democrats. If even one Democrat in the Senate votes against the bill, it will not pass without Republican support.
Forty percent (40%) of voters now favor the creation of a government-sponsored non-profit health insurance option that people could choose instead of a private health insurance plan. But 48% oppose such an option.
However, 63% of voters say it is more important to guarantee that no one is forced to change their health insurance coverage than it is to give consumers the choice of a government-sponsored non-profit health insurance option. Thirty percent (30%) think the “public option” is more important. These numbers are unchanged from early October.
While advocates of the public option believe it will increase the range of choices offered to individuals, the president has acknowledged that it could have the opposite impact. By creating a “public option,” there is a risk that companies may dump their existing employee health coverage because it’s cheaper to pay the fine for not having such coverage than it is to pay their current share of the workers’ health insurance.
Voters have consistently sent mixed signals about the creation of a “public option,” but opposition grows dramatically if it threatens to force them to change health insurance coverage. Most Democrats, however, favor a “public option” and believe the creation of such an option is more important than guaranteeing that no one is forced to change their existing health insurance coverage. Most Republicans and unaffiliateds disagree.
Sixty percent (60%) believe passage of the health care legislation will increase the deficit. That’s likely to be one reason why 57% say it would be better to pass no health care reform bill this year than to pass the plan currently being considered by Congress.
So given the level of overall public opposition, why do congressional Democrats keep pushing ahead? Because while Republicans voters not affiliated with either party rate deficit cutting as the president’s number one priority, Democrats think health care reform is more important.
Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Republicans and 57% of unaffiliated voters say health insurance paid for or subsidized with government funding should be prohibited from covering abortions. Democrats are more closely divided on the question, with 48% saying the health care bill should have no requirements concerning abortions.
One thing is not in doubt, though: Voters are closely following the health care debate. Ninety-two percent (92%) say they are following news stories about the legislation being considered by Congress at least somewhat closely. That includes 61% who are following very closely. A mere three percent (3%) say they are not following the news about this legislation at all.
The health care bill is one factor creating a challenging mid-term election cycle for Democrats. Several Democrats in the House have announced that they are retiring rather than running again next year, and one Democratic congressman has changed parties. The bill also seems to be taking an early toll on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s chances for reelection. The Nevada Democrat now trails three potential GOP challengers in a state where opposition to the plan has been stronger than in other parts of the country.
Democratic incumbents also trail in Connecticut, Pennsylvania, North Dakota and Colorado. Other states featuring potentially competitive races include Illinois, Ohio and Missouri.
Republicans enjoy a modest lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot and their advantage has grown while the health care debate has played out.
The debate over health care reform also has dragged down Obama’s ratings in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
This national telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on December 22-23, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence (see methodology).
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