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Wednesday, November 11, 2009

o'nocchio - stats, Chicago style: Stimulus-related jobs don't add up (WGN News) aka "The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight"

reposted on Harrold's blog at http://harrolds.blogspot.com
 
From: gale Sent: Tuesday, November 10, 2009 Subject: Stimulus-related jobs don't add up
Nothing our polititians say and do surprises me. They lie, cheat and steal and need to be voted out next year. Dusty
 
 
Data on stimulus-related jobs don't add up
 

More than $4.7 million in federal stimulus aid so far has been funneled to schools in North Chicago, and state and federal officials say that money has saved the jobs of 473 teachers.

 

Problem is, the district employs only 290 teachers.

 

"That other number, I don't know where that came from," said Lauri Hakanen, superintendent of North Chicago Community Unit Schools District 187.

 

The Obama administration last week released the first round of data designed to underpin the worthiness of its economic stimulus plan, which so far has directed $1.25 billion to Illinois schools. That money has helped save or create 14,330 school jobs in the state, the administration claimed.

 

But those statistics, compiled initially by the Illinois State Board of Education, appear riddled with anomalies that raise questions about their validity, according to a Tribune analysis of district-by-district stimulus spending and other state data. Many local school officials were perplexed by the stimulus data attributed to their districts.

 

In the official report, Wilmette Public Schools District 39 was credited with 166 jobs saved by stimulus aid. Superintendent Raymond Lechner said the number should be zero.

 

At Dolton-Riverdale School District 148, stimulus funds were said to have saved the equivalent of 382 full-time teaching jobs -- 142 more than the district actually has.

A similar discrepancy was found in data for Kankakee School District 111, where the stimulus report logged the equivalent of 665 full-time jobs saved. "That's impossible," a top Kankakee school official said, adding that the entire payroll -- full and part time -- is 600 workers.

 

But if that suggests the numbers for Illinois may be artificially inflated, then consider the following, which could suggest an undercount:

The totals do not reflect any school jobs saved or created in Chicago, the state's biggest district and the recipient of at least $293 million in stimulus funds. Chicago schools budget chief Christina Herzog said the district easily saved at least 1,200 jobs because of the stimulus, but didn't report them as such because of directives from the state board. State officials dispute that.

 

The district-specific data, obtained through the Freedom of Information Act, also underscore how little of the money has been spent to expand educational opportunities. Statewide, districts reported using most of their stimulus funds to prevent layoffs, with the equivalent of just 222 full-time jobs added to payrolls.

Last week's stimulus report came against the backdrop of a raging debate over the wisdom of President Barack Obama's entire $787 billion stimulus program. Critics on the right contend it has ballooned the deficit while failing to rapidly revive the economy. The administration said the stimulus was designed to build a lasting recovery and has helped avert an even more drastic downturn.

 

Problems with the Illinois stimulus data illustrate how difficult it is to benchmark the impact of so sprawling an initiative. Many districts were unclear about what they should report. And there also may have been confusion over how the data were collated once the figures arrived at the state level.

 

It appears the state treasury -- not students or school districts -- was the prime beneficiary of the education stimulus jackpot in Illinois. In great measure, funds  simply were used to replace general aid payments already owed to local districts by the state. That gave Gov. Pat Quinn breathing room in his struggle to rein in a whopping two-year budget deficit of more than $10 billion.

 

Confusion reigns over why the numbers for many districts appear so off. Responsibility for collecting data and sending the figures to Washington fell to Quinn's office, which turned the task over to the state board.

 

Board spokesman Matt Vanover said the data might be flawed and said the information was only as good as the numbers sent in by local districts. But officials of several districts contacted by the Tribune insisted they never provided the state with the jobs numbers used in the official tabulation.

 

Herzog said the jobs saved in the city weren't reflected in official paperwork because the state directed that layoff notices had to have at least been served and then rescinded before  jobs could be counted as retained.

 

Vanover said Chicago received the same guidance as every other district in the state, but apparently interpreted it differently.

 

Chicago's omission from the stimulus data is not without irony. The federal overseer of school stimulus spending is U.S. Education Secretary Arne Duncan, who until early this year was the CEO of the Chicago schools.

 

Sandra Abrevaya, a spokeswoman for Duncan, said the discrepancies the Tribune uncovered in Illinois jobs data are "really troubling" and would be investigated and corrected if necessary. Still, she said, similar jobs reports from other states appear more solid. "At this point, the department feels good about the number overall," she said.

 

Some local school officials suggested that the jobs data sent to the state appeared to have been overcounted in the official tabulation. 

 

Last spring, Dolton-Riverdale received $3.6 million in stimulus money and reported to the state that the money saved 181 teaching jobs. A follow-up report this fall on another installment of $750,000 brought the total to 201. The official state report states that stimulus money saved 382 jobs.

 

But Carolyn Keith, the district's comptroller, said the data from the two reports overlap and should not be added together.

 

The report from the state board listed jobs being retained or created thanks to the stimulus in 348 local districts, but more than half that total was concentrated in just 35 districts.

 

By contrast, the numbers reported for many districts -- even big ones -- were conservative. Naperville Community Unit School District 203, with 18,000 students, reported just six jobs created with stimulus money.

 

In Schaumburg-based School District 54, Superintendent Ed Rafferty said the state's estimate of 250 jobs preserved or created was accurate, though more than half belonged to a multidistrict preschool program that includes District 54.

 

Just a handful of the jobs were new, Rafferty said, and he warned that every position propped up by stimulus money would be in jeopardy when the program expires.

"Unless there's a guarantee of continuation of (federal or state) money, the vast majority of these will be eliminated because there won't be local resources to fund them," he said.

 

John Keilman contributed. --Bob Secter and Erika Slife  (Chicago Sun-Times & WGN News)


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